What is Future? What is Nifty Futures ?
These
questions comes in the mind of those trader who are either newcomer in stock
market or want to come in stock market but do not know what it is actually
Nifty Future. But they have listen this word number of times.
So
as we know there is National Stock Exchange, one of the main stock exchange of
India. Most of the companies registered in this stock exchange and through this
stock exchange we are able to do transaction in these companies stock . We are
able to buy and sell the companies stock through our broker and broker
registered in stock exchange.
So
Index of National Stock Exchange known as Nifty. And the derivative contract of
Nifty 50 known as Nifty Future. Nifty is a portfolio of main 50 stocks and
according to movement of these stock, we see the up and down movement in Nifty
Futures terminologies: Let us understand various terms in the futures market with the help of quotes on Nifty futures from NSE:
Quotes
given on the NSE website for Nifty futures as on Jan 27, 2016
1.
Instrument type: Future Index
2.
Underlying asset: Nifty
3.
Expiry date: Jan 28, 2016
4.
Open price (in Rs.) : 7434
5.
High price (in Rs.) : 7473
6.
Low price (in Rs.) : 7415
7.
Closing price (in Rs.) : 7433.40
8.
Last Traded price (in Rs.) : 7433.40
9.
No of contracts traded : 209277
10.
Turnover in lakhs : 1167730.60
11.
Underlying value (in Rs.) : 7,437.75
12.
Open Interest: 12,215,625
Spot
Price: The
price at which an asset trades in the cash market. This is the underlying value
of Nifty on Jan 27, 2016 which is 7,437.75
Futures
Price: The
price of the futures contract in the futures market. The closing price of Nifty
in futures trading is Rs. 7433.40. Thus Rs. 7433.40 is the future price of
Nifty, on a closing basis.
Contract
Cycle: It
is a period over which a contract trades. On Jan 27, 2016, the maximum number
of index futures contracts is of 3 months contract cycle- the near month (Jan
2016), the next month (Feb 2016) and the far month (March 2016). Every futures
contract expires on last Thursday of respective month (in this case Jan 28, 2016).
And, a new contract (in this example - April 2016) is introduced on the trading
day following the expiry day of the near month contract (in this example – on
Jan 29, 2016).
Expiration
Day: The
day on which a derivative contract ceases to exist. It is last trading day of
the contract. The expiry date in the quotes given is Jan 28, 2016. It is the
last Thursday of the expiry month. If the last Thursday is a trading holiday,
the contracts expire on the previous trading day. On expiry date, all the contracts
are compulsorily settled. If a contract is to be continued then it must be
rolled to the near future contract. For a long position, this means selling the
expiring contract and buying the next contract. Both the sides of a roll over
should be executed at the same time. Currently, all equity derivatives
contracts (both on indices and individual stocks) on NSE are cash settled
whereas on BSE, derivative contracts on indices are cash settled while the
contracts on individual stocks are delivery settled.
Tick
Size: It
is minimum move allowed in the price quotations. Exchanges decide the tick
sizes on traded contracts as part of contract specification. Tick size for
Nifty futures is 5 paisa. Bid price is the price buyer is willing to pay and
ask price is the price seller is willing to sell.
Contract
Size and contract value: Futures contracts are traded in lots and to arrive
at the contract value we have to multiply the price with contract multiplier or
lot size or contract size. For Nifty 50, lot size is 75 . For individual
stocks, it varies from one stock to another. The lot size changes from time to
time. In the Nifty quotes given above, contract value would be equal to Nifty
Futures Price * Lot Size = 7433.40 * 75 = Rs. 5,57,505. Recently NSE has introduced
minimum contract size as Rs 5 Lakhs for any contracts
Basis:
The
difference between the spot price and the futures price is called basis. If the
futures price is greater than spot price, basis for the asset is negative.
Similarly, if the spot price is greater than futures price, basis for the asset
is positive. On Jan 27, 2016, spot price > future price thus basis for nifty
futures is positive i.e. (7,437.75-7433.40 = Rs. 4.35).
Importantly,
basis for one-month contract would be different from the basis for two or three
month contracts. Therefore, definition of basis is incomplete until we define
the basis vis-a-vis a futures contract i.e. basis for one month contract, two
months contract etc. It is also important to understand that the basis difference
between say one month and two months futures contract should essentially be
equal to the cost of carrying the underlying asset between first and second
month. Indeed, this is the fundamental of linking various futures and
underlying cash market prices together.
During
the life of the contract, the basis may become negative or positive, as there
is a movement in the futures price and spot price. Further, whatever the basis
is, positive or negative, it turns to zero at maturity of the futures contract
i.e. there should not be any difference between futures price and spot price at
the time of maturity/ expiry of contract. This happens because final settlement
of futures contracts on last trading day takes place at the closing price of
the underlying asset.
Cost
of Carry Cost
of Carry is the relationship between futures prices and spot prices. It
measures the storage cost (in commodity markets) plus the interest that is paid
to finance or ‘carry’ the asset till delivery less the income earned on the
asset during the holding period. For equity derivatives, carrying cost is the
interest paid to finance the purchase less (minus) dividend earned.
For
example, assume the share of ABC Ltd is trading at Rs. 100 in the cash market.
A person wishes to buy the share, but does not have money. In that case he
would have to borrow Rs. 100 at the rate of, say, 6% per annum. Suppose that he
holds this share for one year and in that year he expects the company to give
200% dividend on its face value of Rs. 1 i.e. dividend of Rs. 2. Thus his net
cost of carry = Interest paid – dividend received = 6 – 2 = Rs. 4. Therefore,
break even futures price for him should be Rs.104.
It
is important to note that cost of carry will be different for different
participants.
Margin
Account As
exchange guarantees the settlement of all the trades, to protect itself against
default by either counterparty, it charges various margins from brokers.
Brokers in turn charge margins from their customers. Brief about margins is as follows:
Initial
Margin The amount one needs to deposit in the margin account at the time
entering a futures contract is known as the initial margin.
Let us take an example - On Jan 27, 2016
a person decided to enter into a futures contract. He expects the market to go
up so he takes a long Nifty Futures position for 25th Feb 2016
expiry. On Jan 27, 2016 Nifty closes at 7433.40.
The
contract value = Nifty futures price * lot size = 7433.40 * 75 = Rs. 557,505.
Therefore,
Rs 557,505 is the contract value of one Nifty Future contract expiring on Feb
2016.
Assuming
according to the SPAN® calculation margin comes at around 5% of the contract
value as initial margin, the person has to pay him Rs. 27,875.25 as initial
margin. Both buyers and sellers pay initial margin, as there is an obligation
on both the parties to honour the contract.
The
initial margin is dependent on price movement of the underlying asset. As high
volatility assets carry more risk, exchange would charge higher initial margin
on them.
Exposure Margin: Time to Time
basis exchange releases a circular for exposure margin levied on Futures Index
& Futures Stock. For Index(s) exposure margin as on date 27 Jan 2016 is 3%
which means, both buyers and sellers pay exposure margin over and above Initial
margin. In our case it would be 557,505 *3% = 16,725.15
Mark to Market (MTM) In futures
market, while contracts have maturity of several months, profits and losses are
settled on day-to-day basis – called mark to market (MTM) settlement. The
exchange collects these margins (MTM margins) from the loss making participants
and pays to the gainers on day-to-day basis.
Let
us understand MTM with the help of the example. Suppose a person bought a
futures contract at the lowest price on Jan 27, 2016 at 7415. He paid an
initial margin of Rs. 27,875.25 & Exposure Margin of Rs 16725.15 as
calculated above. On the same day Nifty futures contract closes at 7433.40.
This means that he benefits due to the 18.4 points gain on Nifty futures
contract. Thus, his net gain is of Rs. 1,380
(18.4 * 75). This money will be credited to his account and next day the
position will start from 7433.40.
Open
Interest and Volumes Traded An open interest is the total number of
contracts outstanding (yet to be settled) for an underlying asset. The quotes
given above show us on Jan 27, 2016 Nifty futures have an open Interest of 12,215,625.
It is important to understand that number of long futures as well as number of
short futures is 12,215,625. This is because total number of long futures will
always be equal to total number of short futures. Only one side of contracts is
considered while calculating/ mentioning open interest. On Jan 25, 2016, the
open interest in Nifty futures was 15,204,900. This means that there is a
decrease of 2,989,275 in the open interest on Jan 27, 2016. The level of open
interest indicates depth in the market.
Volumes
traded give us an idea about the market activity with regards to specific
contract over a given period – volume over a day, over a week or month or over
entire life of the contract.
Contract
Specifications Contract
specifications include the salient features of a derivative contract like
contract maturity, contract multiplier also referred to as lot size, contract
size, tick size etc. An example contract specification is given below: NSE’s
Nifty 50 Index Futures Contracts
|
|
Underlying
index
|
NIFTY
50
|
Contract
Multiplier (Lot size)
|
50
|
Tick
size or minimum price difference
|
0.05
index point (i.e., Re 0.05 or 5 paise)
|
Last
trading day/ Expiration day
|
Last
Thursday of the expiration month. If it happens to be a holiday, the contract
will expire on the previous business day.
|
Contract
months
|
3
contracts of 1, 2 and 3 month’s maturity. At the expiry of the nearest month
contract, a new contract with 3 months maturity will start. Thus, at any
point of time, there will be 3 contracts available for trading.
|
Daily
settlement price
|
Settlement
price of the respective futures contract.
|
Final
settlement price
|
Settlement
price of the cash index on the expiry date of the futures contract.
|
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